| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.7% | 41% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 75% | -0.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.9% | 56% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 61% | -2.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.8% | 23.6% | 33.7% |
| xgboost | 41.7% | 24.4% | 33.9% |
| logistic | 38.0% | 29.2% | 32.8% |
| Malaga | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1576 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1576 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Betis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Betis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Sporting de Alcazar CF | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Alaves | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Oct | A | Alaves | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | Real Madrid | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Real Madrid | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Ribadesella CF | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Espanol | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Espanol | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 May 2026 | Malaga | 1 - 1 | Santander |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Santander | 3 - 0 | Malaga |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Santander | 2 - 1 | Malaga |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Malaga | 0 - 0 | Santander |
| 05 Mar 2023 | Malaga | 0 - 1 | Santander |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Santander | 0 - 0 | Malaga |
| 23 Feb 2020 | Malaga | 2 - 0 | Santander |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Santander | 0 - 1 | Malaga |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.93 | 34.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |