OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-15

🎾 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2, Bolivia Men Singles · Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:30 UTC · finished

Franco Roncadelli 0.60 2 - 1 2.40 Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	66.3%	74%	-7.7%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	40.6%	59.4%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	33.2%	66.8%
logistic	36.1%	63.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Franco Roncadelli	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Elo (pre-match)	1531	1661
Surface Elo	1531	1661
Form, last 5 (PPG)	0.60	2.40
Form trend	-0.60	0.30
Season points per game	0.75	2.00
Season goals for / game	0.75	1.33
Season goals against / game	1.75	0.56
Rest days	2	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	1 W · 0 D

Franco Roncadelli: last 5

13 Oct	A	Valerio Aboian	2 - 1	W
12 Oct	H	Juan Manuel La Serna	1 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	2 - 1	W
12 Oct	H	Valerio Aboian	2 - 1	W
06 Oct	H	Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas	0 - 2	L

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: last 5

13 Oct	A	Eduardo Ribeiro	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Franco Roncadelli	1 - 2	L
12 Oct	A	Eduardo Ribeiro	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	0 - 2	L
09 Oct	H	Miguel Tobon	2 - 0	W

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Franco Roncadelli	2 - 1	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
16 Jun 2025	Franco Roncadelli	2 - 1	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
22 Apr 2024	Franco Roncadelli	1 - 2	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.35	74.1%	15 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.00	33.3%	15 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:52 UTC