| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.5% | 49% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 76.2% | 79% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.5% | 68% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 48% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.8% | 26.0% | 46.2% |
| xgboost | 26.9% | 24.8% | 48.2% |
| logistic | 22.2% | 29.8% | 48.0% |
| Rio Ave | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1580 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1580 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.13 | 1.38 |
| Rest days | 14 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 7 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Louletano DC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Nacional da Madeira | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Nacional | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Alverca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Alverca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Uniao SC Paredes | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Alverca | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Nacional da Madeira | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Nacional | 4 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Sp Lisbon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Rio Ave | 0 - 0 | Famalicao |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Famalicao | 0 - 0 | Rio Ave |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Famalicao | 1 - 0 | Rio Ave |
| 04 Oct 2024 | Rio Ave | 1 - 1 | Famalicao |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Famalicao | 2 - 1 | Rio Ave |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Rio Ave | 1 - 1 | Famalicao |
| 26 May 2023 | Rio Ave | 2 - 2 | Famalicao |
| 22 Jan 2023 | Famalicao | 0 - 0 | Rio Ave |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Rio Ave | 0 - 1 | Famalicao |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Famalicao | 1 - 1 | Rio Ave |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.96 | 51.0% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.70 | 27.0% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.13 | 46.9% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.43 | 29.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.73 | 26.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 25 Oct 06:15 |