OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Saturday 07 November 2026, 17:30 UTC · finished
Nottingham Forest 0.20 3 - 1 1.80 Manchester City
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 54.7%57%-2.7%✗ miss
DCDraw or away 78.7%82%-3.4%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 71.4%75%-4.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 49.3%43%+5.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 52.8%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson19.6%24.8%55.5%
xgboost20.1%20.4%59.5%
logistic25.4%26.2%48.5%
Inputs the models saw
Nottingham ForestManchester City
Elo (pre-match)16571900
Surface Elo16571900
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.201.80
Form trend-0.100.90
Season points per game0.672.33
Season goals for / game0.672.22
Season goals against / game1.331.11
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W5 W · 2 D
Nottingham Forest: last 5
03 NovAHalifax4 - 3W
31 OctABrentford0 - 2L
31 OctABrentford0 - 2L
23 OctAIpswich1 - 1D
23 OctAIpswich Town U211 - 1D
Manchester City: last 5
04 NovARB Leipzig3 - 2W
31 OctHBrighton0 - 1L
31 OctHBrighton0 - 1L
28 OctHBrighton2 - 2D
27 OctAPort Vale0 - 5L
Head to head
04 Mar 2026Manchester City2 - 2Nottingham Forest
27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest1 - 2Manchester City
08 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest1 - 0Manchester City
04 Dec 2024Manchester City3 - 0Nottingham Forest
28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest0 - 2Manchester City
23 Sep 2023Manchester City2 - 0Nottingham Forest
18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1 - 1Manchester City
31 Aug 2022Manchester City6 - 0Nottingham Forest
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.6261.7%07 Nov 17:30
Bet3651X2draw4.1024.4%07 Nov 17:30
Bet3651X2home5.2519.1%07 Nov 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%07 Nov 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3043.5%07 Nov 17:30
SportyBet1X2away1.7955.9%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0824.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.6521.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6660.2%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3043.5%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC