| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.7% | 74% | -11.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.1% | 76.8% |
| logistic | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Michael Vrbensky | Raul Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1537 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1537 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Patrick Schoen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Olle Wallin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Michael Vrbensky | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Michael Vrbensky | 2 - 0 | Raul Brancaccio |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.36 | 73.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |