| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.5% | 67% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 40.0% | 59.9% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Nick Hardt | Felipe Meligeni Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Marco Cecchinato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Kai Wehnelt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | Nick Hardt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |