| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 39.4% | 44% | -5.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 71.3% | 79% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.3% | 61% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 50% | +10.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.3% | 33% | +17.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.7% | 26.8% | 29.5% |
| xgboost | 39.9% | 30.8% | 29.3% |
| logistic | 34.8% | 28.4% | 36.8% |
| Altrincham | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1440 | 1448 |
| Surface Elo | 1440 | 1448 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.86 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Woking | 1 - 5 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Forest Green | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Halifax | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Boston Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Sep | A | Kidderminster | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Halifax | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Eastleigh | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Sutton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | Altrincham |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Altrincham | 0 - 2 | Hartlepool |
| 18 Feb 2025 | Hartlepool | 1 - 2 | Altrincham |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Altrincham | 1 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 20 Feb 2024 | Hartlepool | 3 - 2 | Altrincham |
| 19 Sep 2023 | Altrincham | 2 - 2 | Hartlepool |
| 09 Mar 2021 | Altrincham | 1 - 1 | Hartlepool |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Hartlepool | 1 - 1 | Altrincham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 16 Sep 06:15 |