| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.0% | 80% | -21.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.9% | 94% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.9% | 93% | -14.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 64% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.3% | 23.3% | 13.4% |
| xgboost | 57.7% | 25.6% | 16.6% |
| logistic | 64.6% | 21.1% | 14.3% |
| Arsenal | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1935 | 1778 |
| Surface Elo | 1935 | 1778 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Brighton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Troyes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 13.81 | 7.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.22 | 13.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |