| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.9% | 79% | -11.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| logistic | 24.2% | 75.8% |
| Karl Friberg | Henry Bernet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1468 | 1541 |
| Surface Elo | 1468 | 1541 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 990 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Rejchtman Vinciguerra, W | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Jan | H | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Nov | A | Andrea Vavassori | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Nov | H | Sebastian Fanselow | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Nov | A | Aleksandr Braynin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Christian Sigsgaard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Stefano Napolitano | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Johan Nikles | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.26 | 79.4% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Sep 06:15 |