| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 43.1% | 37% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 78% | -2.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.2% | 50% | +2.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 59% | +2.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.5% | 24.8% | 33.8% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 26.9% | 36.6% |
| logistic | 34.9% | 28.6% | 36.5% |
| Dunkerque | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1413 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1413 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Nantes | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Nantes | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Annecy | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Annecy | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Pau FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Sochaux | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Sochaux | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dijon | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Saint-Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | St Etienne | 2 - 2 | D |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Dunkerque | 2 - 3 | Metz |
| 09 Dec 2024 | Metz | 2 - 0 | Dunkerque |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |