| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.9% | 44% | +10.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| logistic | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Samuel Heredia | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1459 | 1434 |
| Surface Elo | 1459 | 1434 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Leonardo Storck Franca | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Jul | A | Lorenzo Claverie | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Nicolas Zanellato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Giovanni Branchetti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Eduardo Lage | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl | 2 - 0 | Samuel Heredia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |