| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.7% | 71% | -15.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.6% | 47.3% |
| logistic | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Pavel Lagutin | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1468 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1468 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Ignacio Parisca Romera | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Iliyan Radulov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Dimitris Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Christian Langmo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |