| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.8% | 74% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| logistic | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1713 | 1569 |
| Surface Elo | 1713 | 1569 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Raul Brancaccio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Hernandez, Carles | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Hynek Barton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carles Hernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Charles Chen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Petr Nesterov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.15 | 31.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 08 Oct 06:15 |