| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 74% | -19.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.5% | 94% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.1% | 91% | -18.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 48% | +8.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 53.0% | 25.4% | 21.6% |
| xgboost | 53.2% | 25.7% | 21.1% |
| logistic | 56.3% | 24.8% | 18.8% |
| Livingston | Arbroath | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Dunfermline | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Dunfermline | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Partick | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Partick | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Ayr | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Inverness C | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Morton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Morton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Partick | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Arbroath | 1 - 0 | Livingston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.90 | 12.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |