OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-12
🇮🇹 Serie A · Monday 12 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Atalanta 1.20 3 - 1 0.00 Venezia
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.4%64%-9.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 81.1%86%-5.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.4%82%-8.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.1%64%-7.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson72.0%17.7%10.2%
xgboost42.4%32.1%25.5%
logistic51.3%25.9%22.8%
Inputs the models saw
AtalantaVenezia
Elo (pre-match)17041572
Surface Elo17041572
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.00
Form trend0.900.00
Season points per game1.200.00
Season goals for / game1.000.80
Season goals against / game1.402.60
Rest days2222
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W0 W · 1 D
Atalanta: last 5
11 OctASEF Torres Sassari1 - 2L
20 SepAJuventus0 - 2L
20 SepHRavenna FC 19130 - 2L
12 SepHCagliari1 - 2L
05 SepARoma1 - 2L
Venezia: last 5
10 OctHLecco0 - 1L
19 SepHLazio0 - 2L
19 SepHBrescia1 - 1D
11 SepHFiorentina2 - 4L
06 SepAFrosinone2 - 3L
Head to head
01 Mar 2025Atalanta0 - 0Venezia
20 Oct 2024Venezia0 - 2Atalanta
23 Apr 2022Venezia1 - 3Atalanta
30 Nov 2021Atalanta4 - 0Venezia
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.2519.1%12 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2draw4.2023.8%12 Oct 17:30
Bet3651X2home1.5763.7%12 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%12 Oct 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3842.0%12 Oct 17:30
SportyBet1X2away5.7917.3%12 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.8020.8%12 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5664.1%12 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5265.8%12 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.6038.5%12 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC