| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.2% | 31% | +30.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 85.2% | 58% | +27.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 79.4% | 41% | +38.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 68% | -23.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 13.7% | 19.6% | 66.7% |
| xgboost | 25.7% | 25.6% | 48.6% |
| logistic | 17.3% | 26.4% | 56.3% |
| Rochdale | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1556 | 1788 |
| Surface Elo | 1556 | 1788 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Oldham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Oldham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Gillingham | 1 - 4 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Fulham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Ipswich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Nottingham Forest | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Newcastle | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |