| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.1% | 66% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.6% | 87% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 82.3% | 82% | -0.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 70% | -8.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.3% | 22.0% | 17.7% |
| xgboost | 70.5% | 17.2% | 12.3% |
| logistic | 70.7% | 19.8% | 9.5% |
| Como | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1801 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1801 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Man Utd | 4 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Roma | 0 - 0 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Frosinone | 2 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Frosinone | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Ac Milan | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Ac Milan | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | A | Monza | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Sassuolo | 2 - 1 | Como |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Como | 2 - 0 | Sassuolo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.75 | 17.4% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.94 | 16.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.23 | 19.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |