| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 73.4% | 76% | -2.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 18.5% | 81.5% |
| logistic | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| Tiago Pereira | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1422 | 1756 |
| Surface Elo | 1422 | 1756 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 0.17 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 0 - 2 | Tiago Pereira |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.32 | 75.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 08 Oct 06:15 |