| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 63% | -11.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.6% | 87% | -10.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.2% | 82% | -13.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 50% | +0.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.9% | 26.1% | 25.9% |
| xgboost | 55.6% | 23.0% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 56.0% | 24.6% | 19.4% |
| Livingston | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1467 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1467 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Raith Rvs | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Raith Rovers FC | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Inverness C | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Morton | 4 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Inverness C | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Partick | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Livingston | 5 - 0 | Ayr |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Ayr | 1 - 2 | Livingston |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Livingston | 0 - 1 | Ayr |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 2 | Livingston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |