| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 76% | -14.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| logistic | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Max Alcala Gurri | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1640 | 1526 |
| Surface Elo | 1640 | 1526 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Eliakim Coulibaly | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 2 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 23 Sep 06:15 |