| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.4% | 53% | +9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 63.7% | 36.2% |
| logistic | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| Hugo Grenier | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1544 | 1455 |
| Surface Elo | 1544 | 1455 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carl Emil Overbeck | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Thomas Faurel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Alafia Ayeni | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar | H | Ognjen Milic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Mar | H | Li Tu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Jan | H | Tom Gentzsch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Carl Emil Overbeck | 0 - 2 | Hugo Grenier |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.99 | 50.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |