| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.6% | 75% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.5% | 92% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 86.5% | 90% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 73% | -16.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 71.1% | 16.6% | 12.3% |
| xgboost | 75.7% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| logistic | 70.8% | 20.2% | 9.0% |
| Borussia Dortmund | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1814 | 1591 |
| Surface Elo | 1814 | 1591 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Betis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Mainz | 4 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Mainz | 4 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Darmstadt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 07 Nov 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.50 | 18.2% | 07 Nov 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 07 Nov 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 07 Nov 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 07 Nov 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.19 | 12.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.18 | 16.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.37 | 73.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.25 | 30.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |