OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-02

🎾 tennis_atp_japan_open · Friday 02 October 2026, 08:10 UTC · scheduled

Arthur Fils 2.40 08:10 2.40 Frances Tiafoe

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	60.9%	72%	-11.5%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	62.7%	37.3%
logistic	55.9%	44.1%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Arthur Fils	Frances Tiafoe
Elo (pre-match)	2090	2039
Surface Elo	2090	2039
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	0.30	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Arthur Fils: last 5

02 Oct	H	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	H	Luca Van Assche	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	H	Luca Van Assche	2 - 0	W
31 Aug	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 3	L
24 Aug	H	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 1	W

Frances Tiafoe: last 5

02 Oct	A	Arthur Fils	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	A	Kei Nishikori	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Kei Nishikori	2 - 0	W
11 Sep	A	Ben Shelton	1 - 3	L
08 Sep	A	Alex Michelsen	3 - 2	W

Head to head

02 Oct 2026	Arthur Fils	2 - 0	Frances Tiafoe
24 Aug 2026	Arthur Fils	2 - 1	Frances Tiafoe
17 Mar 2025	Arthur Fils	2 - 1	Frances Tiafoe

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
888sport	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.40	71.4%	02 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	2.90	34.5%	02 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.43	69.9%	02 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	2.95	33.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.35	74.1%	02 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.10	32.3%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.43	69.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.25	30.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Arthur Fils	1.44	69.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Frances Tiafoe	3.35	29.8%	02 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.43	69.9%	02 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	2.95	33.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.36	73.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.05	32.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.39	71.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.03	33.0%	02 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.40	71.4%	02 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.06	32.7%	02 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.38	72.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.02	33.1%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.43	69.9%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.25	30.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Arthur Fils	1.44	69.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Frances Tiafoe	3.35	29.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.36	73.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.05	32.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.42	70.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.14	31.9%	02 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.33	75.2%	02 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	2.90	34.5%	02 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	3.15	31.8%	02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.38	72.5%	02 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.32	75.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.10	32.3%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.32	75.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.30	30.3%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.38	72.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.05	32.8%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.38	72.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.05	32.8%	02 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.40	71.4%	02 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	2.90	34.5%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.35	74.1%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.40	29.4%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Arthur Fils	1.33	75.2%	02 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	3.20	31.2%	02 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC