| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 67% | -15.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.6% | 44.3% |
| logistic | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Franco Roncadelli | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1642 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1642 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 10 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | Franco Roncadelli |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |