| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.5% | 43% | +4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.2% | 73% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.3% | 59% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 52% | -0.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.2% | 26.9% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 27.5% | 33.3% | 39.3% |
| logistic | 31.5% | 27.1% | 41.4% |
| Lorient | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1630 | 1716 |
| Surface Elo | 1630 | 1716 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Le Mans | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Lens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Troyes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Nice | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Concarneau | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Bastia | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Bourg Peronnas | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Lyon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Apr 2026 | Lorient | 1 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 03 Oct 2025 | Paris FC | 2 - 0 | Lorient |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Paris FC | 3 - 2 | Lorient |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Lorient | 2 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 29 Jul 2019 | Lorient | 3 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 15 Apr 2019 | Paris FC | 2 - 2 | Lorient |
| 09 Nov 2018 | Lorient | 2 - 1 | Paris FC |
| 06 Apr 2018 | Lorient | 2 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 03 Nov 2017 | Paris FC | 1 - 1 | Lorient |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.46 | 28.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.27 | 30.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.94 | 51.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |