| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.2% | 65% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.1% | 85% | +0.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.5% | 81% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 69% | -8.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.8% | 23.2% | 20.0% |
| xgboost | 70.1% | 18.1% | 11.8% |
| logistic | 70.8% | 19.8% | 9.4% |
| Como | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1801 | 1624 |
| Surface Elo | 1801 | 1624 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Man Utd | 4 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Roma | 0 - 0 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Frosinone | 2 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Frosinone | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Ac Milan | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Ac Milan | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | A | Monza | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Sassuolo | 2 - 1 | Como |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Como | 2 - 0 | Sassuolo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.86 | 17.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.06 | 19.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |