| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.0% | 36% | +8.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 77% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 55.9% | 49% | +7.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 65% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.0% | 23.5% | 36.6% |
| xgboost | 35.0% | 28.0% | 37.0% |
| logistic | 32.9% | 27.9% | 39.2% |
| Norwich | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1672 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1672 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Reading | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Bolton | 3 - 4 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 6 - 5 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Southampton | 1 - 0 | Norwich |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Norwich | 2 - 1 | Southampton |
| 01 Jan 2024 | Norwich | 1 - 1 | Southampton |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Southampton | 4 - 4 | Norwich |
| 25 Feb 2022 | Southampton | 2 - 0 | Norwich |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Norwich | 2 - 1 | Southampton |
| 19 Jun 2020 | Norwich | 0 - 3 | Southampton |
| 04 Dec 2019 | Southampton | 2 - 1 | Norwich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.74 | 36.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.85 | 26.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.47 | 40.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |