OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-19
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Tottenham 1.00 2 - 3 0.80 Aston Villa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 37.0%27%+10.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 73.0%76%-2.8%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 50.7%36%+14.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 63.0%48%+14.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 60.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson36.0%27.0%37.0%
logisticfailed: ValueError
xgboostfailed: ValueError
Inputs the models saw
TottenhamAston Villa
Elo (pre-match)16101728
Surface Elo16101728
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.000.80
Form trend0.300.50
Season points per game0.500.25
Season goals for / game0.000.25
Season goals against / game1.251.75
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W5 W · 0 D
Tottenham: last 5
12 SepHEverton0 - 0D
05 SepANottingham Forest0 - 0D
29 AugHNewcastle0 - 2L
22 AugABrentford0 - 3L
24 MayHEverton1 - 0W
Aston Villa: last 5
12 SepHNottingham Forest1 - 2L
05 SepAHull0 - 0D
31 AugHArsenal0 - 1L
23 AugABrighton0 - 4L
24 MayAManchester City2 - 1W
Head to head
03 May 2026Aston Villa1 - 2Tottenham
19 Oct 2025Tottenham1 - 2Aston Villa
16 May 2025Aston Villa2 - 0Tottenham
03 Nov 2024Tottenham4 - 1Aston Villa
10 Mar 2024Aston Villa0 - 4Tottenham
26 Nov 2023Tottenham1 - 2Aston Villa
13 May 2023Aston Villa2 - 1Tottenham
01 Jan 2023Tottenham0 - 2Aston Villa
09 Apr 2022Aston Villa0 - 4Tottenham
03 Oct 2021Tottenham2 - 1Aston Villa
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.9025.6%19 Sep 12:30
Bet3651X2draw3.7526.7%19 Sep 12:30
Bet3651X2home1.8554.0%19 Sep 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%19 Sep 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3043.5%19 Sep 12:30
SportyBet1X2away3.8725.8%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2draw3.7926.4%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2home2.0149.8%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7357.8%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%19 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 19:26 UTC