| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.9% | 81% | -9.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 83.6% | 16.3% |
| logistic | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Mathys Erhard | Alberto Barroso Campos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1547 | 1466 |
| Surface Elo | 1547 | 1466 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | H | Theate, Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Patrick Zahraj | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 1 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Benjamin Pietri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Thijs Boogaard | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Guillaume Dalmasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Feb | H | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.23 | 81.3% | 28 Sep 06:15 |