| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.5% | 47% | +8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| logistic | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1591 | 1682 |
| Surface Elo | 1591 | 1682 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Villalon Valdes, Nicolas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nicolas Villalon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Santiago De La Fuente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 08 Oct 06:15 |