| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.8% | 61% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.3% | 47.6% |
| logistic | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Leylah Fernandez | Maja Chwalinska | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1686 | 1604 |
| Surface Elo | 1686 | 1604 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Mirra Andreeva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Alycia Parks | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Kyoka Okamura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Talia Gibson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Maja Chwalinska | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Rebecca Sramkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leylah Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Maja Chwalinska |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |