| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 61% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.4% | 87% | -11.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.1% | 81% | -15.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 55% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.5% | 24.0% | 23.5% |
| xgboost | 44.1% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
| logistic | 45.3% | 28.7% | 26.1% |
| QPR | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1533 | 1609 |
| Surface Elo | 1533 | 1609 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.07 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.21 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Nov | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Southampton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Southampton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Swansea | 5 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Watford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Watford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Birmingham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Birmingham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Burnley | 4 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 07 Nov 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.08 | 19.7% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.13 | 24.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |