| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.1% | 52% | -5.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.6% | 82% | -7.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.8% | 73% | -11.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 57% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.8% | 26.9% | 25.3% |
| xgboost | 41.6% | 29.7% | 28.7% |
| logistic | 42.0% | 28.0% | 29.9% |
| Valladolid | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1414 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1414 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.44 | 1.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Albacete | 5 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Albacete | 5 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | Cordoba | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | CD Acero | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | UD Vall de Uxo | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Cordoba | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hercules CF B | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Valladolid | 1 - 0 | Eldense |
| 04 Oct 2023 | Eldense | 0 - 1 | Valladolid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.79 | 55.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |