| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.0% | 58% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| logistic | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Titouan Droguet | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1851 | 1759 |
| Surface Elo | 1851 | 1759 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Borna Gojo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Karl Poling | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Dino Prizmic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Mark Lajal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Thomas Faurel | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | David Goffin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Thomas Faurel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | Titouan Droguet |
| 07 Sep 2026 | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | Titouan Droguet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |