| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.3% | 56% | +18.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.2% | 81% | -5.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.0% | 74% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 48% | +9.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | 33% | +24.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 54.8% | 25.5% | 19.8% |
| logistic | 52.6% | 27.2% | 20.2% |
| Alaves | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Santander | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Osasuna | 5 - 2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Villarreal | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | Vallecano | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | Getafe | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Sevilla | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Barcelona | 0 - 5 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | La Coruna | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Aug | H | Betis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Celta | 0 - 0 | D |
| 08 Mar 2026 | Valencia | 3 - 2 | Alaves |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Alaves | 0 - 0 | Valencia |
| 14 May 2025 | Alaves | 1 - 0 | Valencia |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Valencia | 2 - 2 | Alaves |
| 05 May 2024 | Valencia | 0 - 1 | Alaves |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Alaves | 1 - 0 | Valencia |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Alaves | 2 - 1 | Valencia |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Valencia | 3 - 0 | Alaves |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Valencia | 1 - 1 | Alaves |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Alaves | 2 - 2 | Valencia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.50 | 18.2% | 15 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 15 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 15 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 15 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 15 Sep 19:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.64 | 27.5% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 15 Sep 09:05 |