OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Buffalo Bills – 26 - 29 – New England Patriots

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	66.2%	76%	-9.6%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	66.2%	33.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.15
form diff	0.12
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	0.24
opponent strength diff	-0.13
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00

Buffalo Bills: last 5

27 Sep	H	Los Angeles Chargers	24 - 16	W
18 Sep	H	Detroit Lions	41 - 31	W
13 Sep	A	Houston Texans	36 - 31	W
17 Jan	A	Denver Broncos	30 - 33	L
11 Jan	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	27 - 24	W

New England Patriots: last 5

27 Sep	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	6 - 35	L
20 Sep	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 3	W
10 Sep	A	Seattle Seahawks	10 - 13	L
08 Feb	H	Seattle Seahawks	13 - 29	L
25 Jan	A	Denver Broncos	10 - 7	W

Head to head

14 Dec 2025	New England Patriots	31 - 35	Buffalo Bills
06 Oct 2025	Buffalo Bills	20 - 23	New England Patriots
05 Jan 2025	New England Patriots	23 - 16	Buffalo Bills
22 Dec 2024	Buffalo Bills	24 - 21	New England Patriots
31 Dec 2023	Buffalo Bills	27 - 21	New England Patriots
22 Oct 2023	New England Patriots	29 - 25	Buffalo Bills
08 Jan 2023	Buffalo Bills	35 - 23	New England Patriots
02 Dec 2022	New England Patriots	10 - 24	Buffalo Bills
16 Jan 2022	Buffalo Bills	47 - 17	New England Patriots
26 Dec 2021	New England Patriots	21 - 33	Buffalo Bills

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.33	75.2%	04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	3.64	27.5%	04 Oct 15:20

Generated 2026-10-30 20:31 UTC