| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.5% | 64% | -4.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| logistic | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Lorenzo Angelini | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1399 | 1471 |
| Surface Elo | 1399 | 1471 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 35 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Sciahbasi, M | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Petr Nesterov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Jul | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Max Purcell | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Aidan Kim | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Garrett Johns | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Angelini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |