| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.5% | 73% | -9.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| logistic | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Michael Geerts | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1479 | 1511 |
| Surface Elo | 1479 | 1511 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 29 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Jay Friend | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Lucas Poullain | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Radu Albot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Billy Blaydes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Gonzalo Bueno | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | George Lazarov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | Michael Geerts |
| 29 Mar 2021 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | Michael Geerts |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |