| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.8% | 64% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| logistic | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Stan Wawrinka | Martin Landaluce | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1663 | 1755 |
| Surface Elo | 1663 | 1755 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 51 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Matteo Berrettini | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Roman Safiullin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Jul | A | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Stan Wawrinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Liam Draxl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | Stan Wawrinka |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | Stan Wawrinka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.57 | 63.7% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 21 Oct 06:15 |