| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.7% | 47% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 77% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.9% | 64% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 51% | +1.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.1% | 28.4% | 37.5% |
| xgboost | 28.1% | 27.7% | 44.2% |
| logistic | 24.1% | 28.0% | 47.9% |
| Gillingham | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1402 | 1456 |
| Surface Elo | 1402 | 1456 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Accrington | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Brighton & Hove Albion U21 | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Rochdale | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Rochdale | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Gillingham | 1 - 4 | Grimsby |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Gillingham |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 1 | Gillingham |
| 01 Oct 2024 | Gillingham | 0 - 1 | Grimsby |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Gillingham | 1 - 1 | Grimsby |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | Gillingham |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Gillingham | 2 - 1 | Grimsby |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Grimsby | 1 - 1 | Gillingham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |