| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.9% | 75% | -19.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 80.2% | 89% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.1% | 91% | -22.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 76% | -28.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.2% | 25.1% | 45.7% |
| xgboost | 46.2% | 28.0% | 25.8% |
| logistic | 51.4% | 27.2% | 21.4% |
| Plymouth | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1660 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1660 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Blackpool | 4 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Blackpool | 4 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Barnsley | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Doncaster | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Leicester | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Leeds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Ipswich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Fulham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Manchester City | 1 - 4 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Everton | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.20 | 12.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.10 | 16.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |