| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.3% | 40% | +19.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 85.3% | 70% | +15.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 79.9% | 55% | +25.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 64% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.3% | 23.1% | 58.6% |
| xgboost | 19.9% | 35.0% | 45.1% |
| logistic | 6.0% | 8.5% | 85.5% |
| Gimnastic | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1391 | 1781 |
| Surface Elo | 1391 | 1781 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 2688 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Real Murcia CF | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Alcorcon | 0 - 3 | L |
| 09 Jun | H | Lugo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Jun | A | Alcorcon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Espanol | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Espanol | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Gimnastica Segoviana CF | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Man Utd | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Zaragoza | 4 - 4 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |