| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.5% | 90% | -19.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| logistic | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| Ben Shelton | Daniel Altmaier | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2065 | 1751 |
| Surface Elo | 2065 | 1751 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 26 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Daniel Altmaier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Frances Tiafoe | 3 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 2 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Holger Rune | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Holger Rune | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Jie Cui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Zachary Svajda | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | Daniel Altmaier |
| 19 May 2026 | Ben Shelton | 1 - 2 | Daniel Altmaier |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.10 | 14.1% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 08 Oct 06:15 |