| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.5% | 45% | +7.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 44.5% | 55.4% |
| logistic | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Max Alcala Gurri | Carlos Taberner | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1651 | 1649 |
| Surface Elo | 1651 | 1649 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Eliakim Coulibaly | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| 04 Aug 2025 | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |