| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.8% | 38% | +12.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.5% | 43.9% |
| xgboost | 76.2% | 22.9% |
| logistic | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1497 | 1547 |
| Surface Elo | 1497 | 1547 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 - 3 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Washington Capitals | 3 - 5 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Winnipeg Jets | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Montréal Canadiens | 6 - 5 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 7 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | San Jose Sharks | 5 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | St. Louis Blues | 0 - 4 | L |
| 30 Apr | A | Minnesota Wild | 2 - 5 | L |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 - 6 | Dallas Stars |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Dallas Stars | 3 - 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Dallas Stars | 3 - 5 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 12 Nov 2024 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 - 7 | Dallas Stars |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.63 | 38.0% | 10 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.55 | 64.5% | 10 Oct 20:20 |