| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.8% | 45% | +2.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.5% | 77% | -3.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.3% | 64% | -2.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 56% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.2% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| xgboost | 30.0% | 30.7% | 39.3% |
| logistic | 28.4% | 27.6% | 44.0% |
| Ayr | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1489 | 1577 |
| Surface Elo | 1489 | 1577 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.11 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 7 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Morton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Morton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Queens Park | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Arbroath | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | Raith Rvs | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | Ayr |
| 07 Apr 2026 | Ayr | 0 - 3 | Dunfermline |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Dunfermline | 2 - 3 | Ayr |
| 31 Oct 2025 | Ayr | 0 - 1 | Dunfermline |
| 23 Sep 2025 | Dunfermline | 0 - 1 | Ayr |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Ayr | 3 - 0 | Dunfermline |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Dunfermline | 0 - 2 | Ayr |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 0 | Dunfermline |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | Ayr |
| 03 May 2024 | Ayr | 3 - 3 | Dunfermline |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.78 | 56.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |