| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.1% | 45% | +11.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 60.5% | 39.4% |
| logistic | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1973 | 1899 |
| Surface Elo | 1973 | 1899 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Arthur Gea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Learner Tien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Learner Tien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Alex Molcan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | Karen Khachanov |
| 21 Oct 2019 | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | Karen Khachanov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.70 | 58.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |