| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.1% | 60% | +1.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| logistic | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1913 | 1886 |
| Surface Elo | 1913 | 1886 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Katie Boulter | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 1 | Naomi Osaka |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | Naomi Osaka |
| 21 Jun 2026 | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 0 | Naomi Osaka |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Karolina Muchova | 0 - 2 | Naomi Osaka |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | Naomi Osaka |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | Naomi Osaka |
| 29 Apr 2021 | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 1 | Naomi Osaka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |