| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.7% | 60% | +6.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| logistic | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2017 | 1853 |
| Surface Elo | 2017 | 1853 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 29 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Mariano Navone | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Stan Wawrinka | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Titouan Droguet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 12 Apr 2021 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |