| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.5% | 44% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.2% | 75% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.5% | 63% | +6.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 50% | +7.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.2% | 26.0% | 18.8% |
| xgboost | 44.3% | 26.3% | 29.4% |
| logistic | 55.2% | 26.2% | 18.7% |
| Las Palmas | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1545 | 1392 |
| Surface Elo | 1545 | 1392 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 04 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 0 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Lanzarote UD | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Eibar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Eibar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Burgos | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Cordoba | 3 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Cordoba | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Oviedo | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | Valladolid |
| 14 Nov 2025 | Valladolid | 0 - 1 | Las Palmas |
| 28 Feb 2025 | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | Las Palmas |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Las Palmas | 2 - 1 | Valladolid |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Valladolid | 0 - 1 | Las Palmas |
| 15 Aug 2021 | Las Palmas | 1 - 1 | Valladolid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.74 | 57.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |